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In Japan and Its Outlook
1. |
Photovoltaic Power Generation |
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Solar light is an inexhaustible source of clean energy, but has its limitations including large daily and seasonal fluctuations, low energy density (about 1 kW/m2 in Japan) and low energy conversion efficiency (currently only up to 16%, which translates to a net available energy density of around 160 W/m2 on better days). Photovoltaic power generation represents a form of new/renewable energy that helps alleviate pressure on the power system during peak hours as it generates electricity during the day, when power demand is high. With its resource potential estimated at 8.5 billion kl (as converted to oil equivalent) in Japan, it holds great promise for the future.
The cost of solar cell modules has halved over the last 10 years, and is currently at the 500 yen/W (4.5 USD/W) level. Nevertheless, its power price is still several times higher than commercial power price, and R&D efforts aimed at further improving conversion efficiency and reducing manufacturing costs are under way to cut the cost to the 200 yen/W (1.6 USD/W) level by around 2005.
A range of demand stimulation measures has been introduced. A typical example is a national government subsidy for the installation of a home power generation system designed for interconnection with an electric utility's power grid with dual-direction power flow, which is administered by the NEF. The subsidy covers about from 1/2 to 1/3 of equipment and other costs (present subsidy is 120,000 yen/kW or 1,000 USD/kW). And any excess electricity generated by the system during the day can be sold off to the electric utility at the same price as electricity supplied by it based on the excess electricity purchase system introduced by electric utilities by utilizing time-dependent variable-rate power supply contracts. The scheme, introduced in FY 1994, was given a major funding boost in FY 1997, with a view to guiding the photovoltaic power generation market into self-sustainability by around FY 2002.
Subsidies are available for photovoltaic power generation systems for homes, businesses, public facilities, etc. Of these, those relating to homes, which are administered by the NEF, amounted to about 69 billion yen (575 million USD) in value from FY 1994 to 2000, covering 57,000 systems with a total power output of 210 MW (as of FY 2000 end). Subsidies relating to businesses, public facilities, etc., which are administered by NEDO, amounted to about 16.8 billion yen (140 million USD) in value from FY 1992 to 2000, covering 495 systems with a total power output of 13.5 MW.
While homes account for 75% of the total demand for photovoltaic power generation systems, the implementation of photovoltaic power generation takes diverse forms. The following systems, all introduced with NEDO subsidies, are typical examples: power supplies for industrial or communications facilities; unattended lights and signs; general power sources for pumps, desalination plants and marine vessels; solar cars, solar boats and other means of transport; and, more recently, disaster protection systems and vehicle-mounted power sources.
As photovoltaic power generation systems are simple systems capable of supplying electricity over long periods with little maintenance, they have the potential for widespread use in the future. The cumulative output of photovoltaic power generation systems introduced by the end of 2000 is about 321 MW, and the numerical target for introduction by FY 2010 is 4,820 MW (1.18 billion loe). |
Table 5 : Outline of Subsidy Program for Residential
PV Systems |
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| Source: New Energy Foundation (October 2001) |
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Cumulative Installed Capacity |
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Fig. 4 : Trend of Installation Cost (PV System) |
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Recent Installation Cost of Residential PV Systems |
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The data are calculated based on 1,314 systems installed between November 10 and December 12, 2001 under the subsidy program. (Monocrystal: 189; Multicrystal: 1,112; Amorphous: 13)
Tax is not included.
Source: New Energy Foundation |
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2. |
Wind Power Generation |
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The use of wind energy has a long history, and wind power generation enjoys relatively wide use among natural new energy sources, centering on Europe and North America.
The worldwide installed capacity as of the end of 2000 was 17,706 MW, including 6,113 MW in Germany, 2,555 MW in the United States, 2,297 MW in Denmark and 2,402 MW in Spain.
A number of countries are putting a lot of effort into wind power generation. For example by 2010, the United States plans to introduce 10,000 MW of wind power generation, while Germany plans to install 10 % of the total electricity supply and the Netherlands plans to introduce 2,000 MW. Similarly, Denmark plans to introduce 5,500 MW of wind power generation by 2030.
This is largely attributable to the fact that wind power generation is closest among new/renewable energy sources to commercial power generation in terms of cost where conditions are favorable.
In recent years, wind power generation has made significant progress in Japan as well, with about 284 units built by September 2001 with a total installed capacity of about 160 MW. By the end of FY 2002, the figure is expected to increase to 300 MW, which was former Japan's target for installation by 2010. The installation target for 2010 has been revised to 3,000 MW (1,340,000 kloe).
As in the case of photovoltaic power generation, a system has been established whereby any excess electricity produced using wind power generation systems can be sold to a power utility, and this has been a factor in the surge in the number of these systems in recent years.
Lately, wind power generation systems have been increasing in size. At present, more than fifty 1,000-kW class units (up to 1,650 kW per unit) are either under construction or in the pipeline in
Japan. In Europe and North America, larger models rated at several thousand kW are becoming common. Apart from the scaling up of mechanical design, R&D efforts are focusing on, among other things, the adoption of a blade design aimed at lowering the cut-in wind speed to utilize weak winds, improvement of aerodynamics design to reduce noise and computerized real-time operation control. R&D is also under way for a 100-kW class wind power generator for islands with difficult wind conditions. |
Fig. 5 : Trend of Wind Power Generation
Introduction in Japan |
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| Source: New Energy Foundation |
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Trend of Wind Power Generation Introduction
in the World |
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| Source: Wind Power Monthly |
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Wind Power Generation Sites in Japan |
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| Source: New Energy Foundation |
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3. |
Solar Heat Utilization |
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The use of solar heat soared in the 1980s, shortly after
the second oil crisis. So far, the solar thermal industry has
shipped more than four million solar systems. Now, the systems
disused outnumber the systems installed. The number of new installations
is decreasing and the number of the systems disused is increasing.
The decrease in new installations comes from the high costs.
While the solar heat costs remain high, the costs of the conventional
energies, such as city gas and kerosene, stay low.
Solar thermal systems for non-residential use require a large
initial investment. These systems pay only when there is great
demand for heat. Most of the systems are installed in hospitals
and public institutions.
New technologies are expected to help increase the use of solar
heat. Now, the solar thermal industry is developing new technologies
and seeking new applications. The new technologies include solar
thermal systems integrated into roofs and other building materials,
and hybrid systems combining solar thermal technology and PV
technology. |
Fig. 6 : Transition of Installation of
Solar Water Heater and
Forced Circulation Type Solar System |
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| Source: Solar System Development Association |
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4. |
Thermal Energy Utilization
(Untapped Energy and Cogeneration) |
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District Heating and Cooling (DHC) system provide a certain
volume of heat (more than 5 Gcal/h according to the Heat Supply
Businesses Law) to specific districts and office buildings.
As of the end of August 1996, 77 businesses have obtained licenses
for 127 sites.
The resource potential of untapped sources of energy, including
thermal energy conversion using seawater, river water, etc.
and waste heat utilization of refuse incineration, is estimated
at 3.4 billion loe, and there have so far been 37 schemes geared
towards utilizing such energy. Recently, glacial energy has
been included. In the Hokkaido and Tohoku districts, which have
heavy snowfalls, ice and snow stored in winter has been used
to store agricultural products in summer for many years. Some
municipal governments are developing the technology of using
ice and snow as a cooling source for air conditioning in summer.
As estimate shows that the annual supply of glacial energy can
be 0.5 million kl (converted into crude oil) in heavy snow districts
for air conditioning.The numerical target for the introduction
of untapped energy utilization by FY 2010 has been set to 580
million loe.
The resource potential of cogeneration (including fuel cell
systems), which utilizes heat from a power generation system,
is estimated at 23 billion loe. As of the end of FY 2000, there
were 5,603 cogeneration plants with a combined power output
of 5,480 MW (2.4% of overall power generation output). The numerical
target for the introduction of cogeneration (excluding steam
turbine system) by FY 2010 has been set to 10,020 MW (6.62 billion
loe).
In the future, the incorporation of
large-scale DHC systems into district redevelopment schemes
and the further development of small-scale untapped heat energy
supply systems for individual buildings and factories aimed
at improving the efficiency of heat use will be needed.
The expansion of cogeneration is expected from the viewpoint
of both energy efficiency and energy conservation. The following
are some of the areas where the introduction of cogeneration
systems has made progress. For commercial use: hotels, offices,
sports facilities, research facilities, hospitals, schools,
stores, resort houses, etc. For industrial use: the food industry,
chemical industry, pulp & paper industry, textile industry,
steel industry, machinery industry, and the like.
When it comes to its economics, the clue for the introduction
of cogeneration is that whether there is sufficient demand for
heat as well as electricity. For further introduction of cogeneration
systems in the future, it will be necessary to lower construction
costs, including the cost of environmental protection measures,
and improve the reliability of turbines and auxiliary equipment,
as well as improving the regulatory control framework through
the simplification of applicable laws/regulations and procedures
and easing of restrictions. There will also be a need to promote
new demands or new forms of introduction, such as the pioneering
introduction by local governments of regular and emergency dual-purpose
supply cogeneration systems for public facilities, and establishment
of energy self-supply systems by private businesses such as
manufacturers based on the shared use of cogeneration systems.
Among the main countries, the United States, Germany and Denmark
have respectively introduced 35 MW (5% of overall power output),
18 MW (10%) and 5 MW (50%) of cogeneration-based power plants,
and the cogeneration share of overall power output in Japan,
which is 2.4%, is significantly low compared to the US and European
countries. |
Fig. 7 : Trend of Cogeneration Installation |
| Total (as of March 2001) 3364 units; 5484 MW |
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| Source: Japan Cogeneration Center |
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5. |
Waste Incineration Power Generation |
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In 1998, 51.6 million tons of municipal solid waste was generated
(1.1 kg/person/day), and 77% of them was incinerated, 7.5% taken
to a landfill site and 12.1% recycled. Industrial waste generation,
on the other hand, was 408 million tons, and there had been
little change since 1990.
As of the end of FY 1999, there were
more than 1900 municipal solid waste incineration facilities,
and 189 had power generation equipment attached to them. The
combined power output was 843 MW. The number of industrial waste
incineration plants featuring power generation equipment, on
the other hand, stood at 53 as of the end of FY 1999 with a
combined power output of 136 MW. Altogether, there were 242
waste incineration plants with power generation equipment, and
their combined installed capacity was 979 MW. The numerical
target for the introduction of waste incineration power generation
by FY 2010 has been set to 4,170 MW (5.52 billion loe).
Although the potential of waste incineration power generation
is substantial (approx. 10,000 MW), there are still few plants
that generate more electricity than is used for their own consumption.
For this reason, a subsidization scheme has been introduced
for the new installation of incineration systems and power generation
equipment.
Low-temperature combustion during refuse incineration has become
a major social problem as a cause of dioxin generation, with
90% of overall dioxin emissions attributed to waste incineration.
To cope with this, the Japanese Government has set the dioxin
control target that is to cut the overall dioxin emissions from
nationwide waste incineration plants by about 90% from 1997
levels over four years. This requires the introduction of high-temperature
combustion incineration plants (e.g. gasification melting furnaces),
and boost plans to build high-efficiency refuse incineration
power generation systems in the future. On the other hand, however,
a trend towards localized refuse incineration in cities and
downsizing/decentralization of incineration plants may emerge
due to the progress of recycling and the quantitative limits
of refuse emission.
All in all, the following will be some of the areas where future
challenges lie: efficiency improvements through repowering combined-cycle
power generation, centralized power generation through increases
in plant size and the use of refuse derived fuel (RDF), and
mixed incineration of municipal solid waste and industrial waste. |
Fig. 8 : Waste Power Generation in Japan |
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| Source: Natural Resources & Energy Agency |
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6. |
Biomass Energy |
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It is regarded that the Japanese estimated biomass resources
and its potential capacity will be equal to 19.1 billion loe,
the current new energy introduction target for 2010.
The use of biomass energy has been promoted in Japan as well
as other countries. The methane gas, which is extracted from
organic waste, is used for power generation. Also, methane gas
extracted from sewage sludge is applied for city gas. As biomass
energy has low impact on the environment, a stable amount of
introduction is expected. However, at present, a matter of economy,
such as cost for transportation and collection of biomass energy,
hinder the expansion.
For further utilization of untapped biomass resources, integrating
measures are required for their collection, transportation,
preliminary treatment, energy conversion and the infrastructure
system. |
Table 6 : Reserves and Recoverable Reserves
of Biomass Energy in FY2010 (estimation) |
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7. |
Clean Energy Vehicles |
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NOx pollution in cities has been escalating, and CO2 is causing
a global environmental problem. From the viewpoint of environmental
protection, therefore, high hopes are attached to the introduction
of clean energy vehicles (CEV) because of their superior NOx
and CO2 emission performance.
Importantly, electric cars have undergone considerable improvements
in mileage between charges, travelling speed, etc.
Nevertheless, more R&D efforts are needed to, among other
things, improve batteries in terms of longer service lives and
greater energy densities, along with further price reduction
efforts through mass production. The use of fuel- efficient
hybrid cars, which are driven by a fuel gasoline engine and
an electric motor, have started to increase. Major car manufacturers
released their hybrid car models in 2000. As of December 1999,
more than 1.1 million natural gas vehicles were on the road
worldwide, with Argentina accounting for 450,000 units, followed
by Italy, 320,000, the United States, 89,000, and the former
Soviet Union, 35,000.
As of the end of FY 2000, a total of 62,032 CEVs had been introduced
in Japan (3,815 electric vehicles, 50,272 hybrid cars, 7,811
natural gas vehicles and 134 methanol vehicles). To cater for
these vehicles, 54 battery charging stations, 556 natural gas
fuelling stations and 38 methanol fuelling stations have been
set up. The numerical target for the introduction of clean energy
vehicles by FY 2010 has been set to 3.48 million units. |
Fig. 9 : Trend of Clean Energy Vehicles Introduction in Japan |
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| Source: New Energy Foundation |
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8. |
Fuel Cells |
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The operating principle of the fuel cell is the reverse of
electrolysis, and a fuel cell directly converts chemical energy
into electrical energy. In a fuel cell, which features a fuel
electrode (anode) and an air electrode (cathode), hydrogen,
produced from a hydrocarbon such as natural gas through reforming,
undergoes a chemical reaction, and produces electricity and
heat. Apart from electricity, the heat of reaction can also
be utilized as warm water, etc.
There are hardly any CO2 or NOx emissions. Other advantages
of fuel cells include low noise, wide choice of fuels, small
size and flexibility with the installation locations. At present,
phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFCs) are in the early stages of
commercialization.
As of the end of March 2001, a total of 69 on-site PAFC systems
with a combined power output of 11.6 MW had been introduced
in Japan. Within these systems, Gas companies have been introduced
69 on site PAFC systems.
Reliability, which was a problem in the past, has improved to
a practically acceptable level. The numerical target for the
introduction of fuel cells by FY 2010 has been set to 2,200
MW.
Outside Japan, there are 168 fuel cell systems with a combined
output capacity of 32.2 MW.
The problem with fuel cells at the moment is their relatively
high cost, which ranges from 400,000 to 700,000 yen/kW (from
3,333 to 5,833 USD/kW). When this comes down to the 250,000
yen/kW (2,083 USD/kW) mark as a result of mass production, fuel
cells will become competitive against commercial power generation.
In this regard, great hopes are pinned on early demand creation
in the public sector.
In terms of future potential, the polymer
electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) is the focus of attention. PEFCs,
which use a fluorine compound electrolytic membrane, are suitable
for automotive and home uses. However, there are still problems
with cost, weight and fuel processing, and further R&D efforts
will be needed to overcome them. The PEFC is a key energy option
in the 21st century, and will prove to be an affective measure
to address environmental problems, including climate change.
In March 2001, the Fuel Cell Commercialization
Conference of Japan (FCCJ) was established to pave the way for
the development of fuel cells. Their activities will be conducted
through the cooperation of the public and private sectors, and
NEF will serve as the secretariat. |
Organization of the Fuel Cell Commercialization
Conference of Japan (FCCJ) |
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Table 7 : Types of Fuel Cells |
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9. |
Hydropower |
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Japan's first commercial hydropower plant started operation
in 1892. After 1910, hydropower development had flourished,
and it became the most important power generation method. However,
in response to increasing demand for electric power with economic
growth since the late 1950s, large-scale thermal power generation
has become the mainstream. Subsequently, making most of its
characteristics, hydropower has been utilized to provide a stable
power supply during peak hours.
Given the limitations on development of large-scale hydropower
plants, the development of "pumped storage" power
plants became the mainstream in the 1960s. In recent years,
due to environmental awareness, hydropower has been reevaluated
as a clean energy resource, and demands for the development
of small-to-medium-scale hydropower projects are increasing
not only in Japan but also in other countries.
Hydropower accounts for around 20% of the total output of power
generation facilities. According to Electric Power Development
Coordination Council, in FY 1997, total output of hydropower
facilities was 46,320 MW. Of which 44,850 MW was utilized for
utility power business, and 1,400 MW was consumed by private
facilities.
In Japan, already 65% of technologically and economically feasible
hydropower resources have been developed. The remaining 35%
can provide about 12,000 MW output according to the 5th Hydroelectric
Power Generation Potential Survey.
In order to consider specific promotion policies for the development
and introduction of hydropower in the future, a committee has
been established by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
The committee is reporting the results of its considerations
regarding responses to various hydropower issues. The report
says that in order to promote development of hydropower further,
it is important to resolve its economic feasibility issues.
And power utility companies and public power wholesalers should
highly evaluate hydropower and should engage in hydropower development
initiatives.
In the future, hydropower locations will become smaller in scale
and more remote in area, and development costs are expected
to increase. In order to deal with the circumstances, the development
and introduction of new technologies will be required. At the
national level, it is necessary to strengthen financial support
measures. Furthermore, it is absolutely essential to obtain
the understanding and cooperation of citizens, especially local
residents, with regard to hydropower development. As well as
positive public relations of the national government and power
companies, regional vitalization and harmonization with regional
environments are essential in selecting locations for hydropower
development.
Moreover, when it comes to global environmental issues, the
international collaboration on hydropower development is essential.
The collaboration requires consensus between Japan and a partner
country, collection and compilation of fundamental data, and
planning of overall development programs, creation of fundamental
systems for international collaboration in Japan. |
Table 8 : Potential Hydropower Resources and Its Development Condition
(As of March 2000) |
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Table 9 : Potential Hydropower Considered Technically and Economically Feasible
(5 th Hydroelectric Power Generation Potential Survey) |
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